Journal · 2026-05-21 · ARU
Arafura took FID on Nolans. Construction starts September. First oxide is mid-2029.
A $1.6B Australian NdPr mine with a critical-minerals reserve offtake. This is what a de-risked foreign name looks like when the government actually wants the tonnes.
Nolans has been a study for a decade. FID in May turned it into a construction story. Arafura will be Australia’s third NdPr producer after Lynas and Iluka, targeting first production from mid-2029. Five hundred tonnes of NdPr are earmarked for a critical minerals reserve.
The pulse is the financing stack and the offtake book, not the grade. 2.6% TREO in a phosphate-hosted deposit is real. Radioactivity is the permit fact everyone already knows. The remaining question is whether the $1.6B stays $1.6B once earthworks start.