Journal · 2026-07-16 · LYC
Lynas re-cut the Malaysian HREE plant to A$294m. Dy and Tb are real. Ex-China heavies are not cheap.
First commercial Dy and Tb outside China already printed in 2025. The capex jump is the tell that particle spec and non-China kit cost what they cost.
Lynas is the only ex-China producer that has sold commercial separated dysprosium and terbium. That fact sits above every junior HREE pitch on this desk. The Towards 2030 plant next to LAMP was A$180m in late 2025 and A$294m in July 2026. Customer purity, non-China equipment, geopolitics.
The commercial structure is now a floor: JOGMEC/Sojitz to 2038 at $110/kg NdPr, and a US Department of War LOI of about $96m over four years. Seadrift in Texas is dead. The US relationship is a supply contract, not a plant. For juniors, the lesson is the floor — oxide is a contracted product, not a spot tweet.